South Africa

On February 11, 1990, Nelson Mandela walked out of Victor Verster Prison after 27 years of incarceration, and the world held its breath. South Africa—a country that had institutionalized racial segregation into one of the most comprehensive systems of oppression in modern history—was about to attempt a transition that most observers considered impossible: the peaceful transfer of power from a white minority that controlled the military, the economy, and the nuclear arsenal to a black majority that had been systematically excluded from political life, education, and economic opportunity. That the transition succeeded—producing democratic elections in April 1994 rather than the widely predicted civil war—remains one of the 20th century’s most remarkable political achievements.

Three decades later, South Africa occupies an uncomfortable position. It is Africa’s most industrialized economy, a BRICS member, the continent’s diplomatic heavyweight, and the custodian of mineral wealth critical to the global Geopolitics of Energy Transition. Yet it is also a country where unemployment exceeds 32% (and youth unemployment surpasses 60%), where rolling electricity blackouts have crippled economic growth, where inequality remains among the world’s worst, and where the African National Congress—the liberation movement turned governing party—has been hollowed out by corruption and factionalism. South Africa’s trajectory matters because it tests whether post-liberation states can build functional governance, and whether the Global South’s institutional ambitions (BRICS, African Union reform) rest on foundations strong enough to sustain them.

Geographic Foundations¶

South Africa occupies the southern tip of the African continent—1.22 million square kilometers of territory commanding the maritime approaches where the Atlantic and Indian Oceans meet. The Cape of Good Hope, while no longer the primary trade route it was before the Suez Canal opened in 1869, remains strategically significant: any disruption to the Suez Canal (as during the 1967-1975 closure) forces global shipping around the Cape, making South African ports critical waypoints.

The country’s mineral wealth is extraordinary. South Africa possesses approximately 80% of the world’s known manganese reserves, 72% of chromium, 75% of platinum group metals (essential for catalytic converters, hydrogen fuel cells, and electronics), significant deposits of gold (historically the world’s largest producer), diamonds, vanadium, and coal. These minerals give South Africa strategic importance that its GDP alone ($405 billion, approximately 30th globally) does not fully capture.

The population of 62 million is distributed across nine provinces, with the economic heartland concentrated in Gauteng province (Johannesburg, Pretoria) and the Western Cape (Cape Town). The country’s ethnic composition—approximately 81% Black African, 8% Coloured (mixed race), 8% White, and 3% Indian/Asian—reflects the demographic legacy of colonialism and apartheid.

From Apartheid to Democracy¶

The Apartheid System¶

Apartheid (“apartness” in Afrikaans), formally implemented from 1948 by the National Party government, classified South Africa’s population by race and assigned rights, residence, employment, and services accordingly. The system was comprehensive: separate schools, hospitals, beaches, buses, and drinking fountains; pass laws restricting Black movement; forced removals to “homelands” (nominally independent Bantustans that no other country recognized); and prohibition of interracial marriage and sexual relations.

The economic dimension was as important as the political. White South Africans—approximately 15% of the population—controlled over 85% of the land, the vast majority of corporate assets, and virtually all senior positions in government, business, and the professions. Black South Africans provided cheap labor for mines, farms, and factories while being denied the political rights, education, and capital accumulation that might have changed the arrangement.

International opposition grew over decades. The UN imposed a mandatory arms embargo in 1977. Economic Sanctions escalated through the 1980s, as banks withdrew credit, companies divested, and sports and cultural boycotts isolated the regime. The anti-apartheid movement became the most successful international solidarity campaign of the late Cold War.

The Transition¶

The negotiated transition (1990-1994) avoided the bloodbath that many predicted. Several factors made it possible:

The end of the Cold War removed the National Party’s claim to be defending against communism—the ANC’s alliance with the South African Communist Party and its Soviet connections had provided the apartheid government with a useful Cold War justification. The economy was stagnating under sanctions and the costs of maintaining a security state. And both Mandela and President F.W. de Klerk demonstrated the political courage to negotiate with adversaries their constituents viewed as enemies.

The 1994 elections—in which millions of Black South Africans voted for the first time, many waiting in lines that stretched for kilometers—produced an ANC landslide. Mandela’s presidency (1994-1999) focused on reconciliation rather than retribution: the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, the “Rainbow Nation” vision, and the deliberate retention of white civil servants and military officers signaled that the new South Africa would not pursue the revenge that the old South Africa had given it every reason to seek.

Strategic Position¶

BRICS and Global South Diplomacy¶

South Africa’s inclusion in BRICS (the “S” was added in 2010 to the original BRIC grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, and China) reflected a diplomatic achievement that exceeded South Africa’s economic weight. With a GDP smaller than any other BRICS member by a significant margin, South Africa’s value to the grouping is representational: it provides BRICS with an African face and continental credibility.

South Africa has used its BRICS membership and its seat in the G20 to advocate for Global South positions: De-dollarization, reform of the IMF voting structure, climate justice (arguing that developed countries bear primary responsibility for emissions), and Palestinian rights. President Cyril Ramaphosa’s decision to bring genocide charges against Israel at the International Court of Justice (December 2023) earned widespread admiration in the Global South while straining relations with Western governments.

The African Union and Continental Leadership¶

South Africa hosts the Pan-African Parliament and plays a leading diplomatic role in the African Union. It has contributed troops to peacekeeping missions across the continent (Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, Mozambique) and has mediated conflicts in Zimbabwe, South Sudan, and elsewhere.

Yet South African continental leadership is contested. Nigeria, with over three times South Africa’s population and a rapidly growing economy, increasingly rivals South African influence in West Africa. Egypt, Kenya, and Ethiopia compete for diplomatic prominence. And South Africa’s own domestic dysfunction—the energy crisis, crime rates, economic stagnation—undermines its claim to continental leadership through example.

The China Relationship¶

China has become a transformative economic partner. Bilateral trade exceeds $50 billion annually. Chinese investment in South African mining, telecommunications, and infrastructure has grown substantially. South Africa was an early participant in the Belt and Road Initiative, though engagement has been more modest than in East Africa.

The relationship creates tensions with Western partners, particularly when South Africa’s diplomatic positions align more closely with Beijing and Moscow than with Washington and Brussels. South Africa’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, hosting of Russian naval exercises, and BRICS advocacy for alternative financial systems have prompted Western criticism—and deepened the perception that the post-apartheid state has chosen sides in Great Power Competition.

Challenges¶

The Energy Crisis¶

South Africa’s electricity crisis—characterized by “load-shedding” (scheduled blackouts)—has been the country’s most acute governance failure. Eskom, the state utility that generates approximately 90% of South Africa’s electricity, operates aging coal-fired plants at diminishing capacity. By 2023, load-shedding exceeded 300 days per year, with blackouts lasting up to 12 hours daily. The economic cost has been estimated at 2-3% of GDP annually.

The crisis reflects decades of underinvestment, corruption (particularly during the “state capture” era under President Jacob Zuma, 2009-2018), and the failure to plan for the transition from coal-dependent electricity generation. South Africa derives approximately 80% of its electricity from coal—making it one of the world’s most carbon-intensive economies and a target for international climate pressure.

Inequality¶

South Africa’s Gini coefficient of approximately 0.63 makes it one of the most unequal countries on Earth. The inequality is starkly racialized: white South Africans’ average income remains approximately five times that of Black South Africans. Unemployment among Black South Africans exceeds 35%, compared to approximately 8% among whites.

The ANC’s economic policies—Black Economic Empowerment (BEE), minimum wage increases, social grants reaching over 18 million recipients—have created a Black middle class and prevented destitution for millions but have not fundamentally altered the structural inequality inherited from apartheid. Critics argue that BEE has enriched a politically connected elite while failing to generate broad-based economic transformation.

Crime and Governance¶

South Africa’s murder rate—approximately 42 per 100,000 people—is among the world’s highest. Gender-based violence is epidemic. Organized crime, fueled by unemployment and inequality, has penetrated state institutions. The police service, with approximately 190,000 members for 62 million people, is understaffed, under-resourced, and in some areas corrupted.

Conclusion¶

South Africa’s importance to global geopolitics rests not on military power—its defense budget is modest at approximately $3 billion—but on its diplomatic weight, mineral resources, and symbolic significance. As the Global South’s most prominent democracy and Africa’s most sophisticated economy, South Africa’s success or failure sends signals about whether post-colonial states can build inclusive prosperity and whether the BRICS vision of a reformed international order has substance behind its rhetoric.

The miracle of 1994 created expectations that three decades of governance have not fulfilled. Whether South Africa can address its energy crisis, reduce inequality, restore institutional capacity, and fulfill the promise of its extraordinary transition remains uncertain. What is certain is that the answer matters—for Africa, for the Global South, and for the international order that both seek to reshape.

Sources & Further Reading¶

• Long Walk to Freedom by Nelson Mandela — The autobiography that defined post-apartheid South Africa’s founding narrative, combining political memoir with moral vision.

• The Looting Machine: Warlords, Oligarchs, Corporations, Smugglers, and the Theft of Africa’s Wealth by Tom Burgis — Investigative account of how mineral wealth has been exploited across Africa, with significant attention to South Africa’s mining sector and political economy.

• How Long Will South Africa Survive? by R.W. Johnson — A controversial but analytically rigorous assessment of South Africa’s governance challenges and the ANC’s trajectory.

• Born a Crime by Trevor Noah — A personal account that illuminates apartheid’s human dimensions and the complexity of South African identity more accessibly than any political analysis.