Sub-Saharan Africa is the world’s most rapidly changing region. Its population is growing faster than anywhere else. Its economies are among the fastest-expanding. Its resources—from oil and gas to minerals essential for the energy transition—are objects of intense international competition. And its strategic position, long neglected in great power calculations, is gaining new significance as China challenges Western influence and the continent’s own agency asserts itself.
For decades, Africa was dismissed as a marginal region in international affairs—too poor, too unstable, too peripheral to matter. That dismissal was always wrong, and it is now obviously so. Understanding Africa’s geopolitics is essential for understanding the 21st century.
Geographic Context¶
The Continental Scale¶
Sub-Saharan Africa is vast and diverse:
- Area: Over 24 million square kilometers, larger than China, the US, and India combined
- Population: Over 1.2 billion, projected to exceed 2 billion by 2050
- Countries: 46 states with enormous variation in size, population, and resources
- Languages: Over 2,000 languages spoken across the continent
This diversity makes generalization dangerous—“Africa” is not a single entity but a continent of radically different conditions.
Geographic Zones¶
The region divides into distinct geographic zones:
- Sahel: The semi-arid band south of the Sahara, stretching from Senegal to Sudan—drought-prone, conflict-ridden, strategically sensitive
- West Africa: Coastal states from Senegal to Nigeria, including the continent’s most populous country
- Central Africa: The Congo Basin’s rainforests, the continent’s mineral heart
- East Africa: The Great Lakes region, Horn of Africa, and East African coast
- Southern Africa: South Africa’s industrial economy and its neighbors
Strategic Features¶
Several geographic features carry strategic significance:
- Coastal position: Africa’s coasts face both Atlantic and Indian Ocean trade routes
- Horn of Africa: Controls approaches to the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb strait
- Mineral deposits: Concentrated in Central Africa (Congo, Zambia) and Southern Africa
- Waterways: The Nile, Niger, and Congo rivers are vital for regional economies
- Indian Ocean islands: Madagascar, Mauritius, and others have growing strategic importance
Resource Endowment¶
Africa’s natural wealth is extraordinary:
- Oil and gas: Nigeria, Angola, and others are significant producers; new discoveries across the continent
- Minerals: Cobalt (70% of global supply in DRC), copper, gold, diamonds, platinum, manganese
- Rare earths: Deposits could reduce Chinese dominance in this strategic sector
- Agricultural potential: Vast underutilized arable land
- Renewable energy: Exceptional solar and wind potential
These resources make Africa central to both the existing economy and the energy transition.
Historical Background¶
Colonial Partition¶
European colonization fundamentally shaped modern Africa:
- Berlin Conference (1884-85): European powers partitioned Africa with minimal regard for existing societies
- Arbitrary borders: Colonial boundaries divided ethnic groups and combined hostile populations
- Extraction economy: Colonial systems built to export resources, not develop economies
- Institutional legacy: States inherited structures designed for control, not governance
This colonial legacy explains much of Africa’s contemporary challenges.
French Africa¶
France maintained uniquely close ties with its former colonies:
- Francophone bloc: 14 former colonies in West and Central Africa
- CFA franc: Monetary zone tied to the French treasury
- Military presence: Permanent bases and intervention capability
- Political influence: French support for preferred leaders, intervention against others
This “Francafrique” system is now under severe strain.
Cold War Dynamics¶
Superpower competition shaped post-independence Africa:
- Proxy conflicts: Angola, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Somalia—all saw superpower involvement
- Military aid: Both sides armed preferred regimes
- Development models: Capitalism vs. socialism competed for adherents
- Limited benefit: Neither superpower prioritized African development over strategic advantage
The Cold War’s end left Africa neglected as Western attention shifted elsewhere.
Post-Cold War Neglect¶
The 1990s and 2000s saw reduced external engagement:
- “Africa fatigue”: Western aid declined; strategic attention minimal
- Failed states: Somalia, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Congo collapsed into conflict
- Structural adjustment: IMF programs imposed painful reforms
- Democracy waves: Some progress, but many reversals
This neglect created space for new actors—particularly China—to expand influence.
Major Powers and Actors¶
China¶
China has become Africa’s largest trading partner and a major investor:
- Trade: Over $280 billion annually, primarily African commodities for Chinese manufactures
- Investment: Infrastructure, mining, telecommunications, manufacturing
- Loans: Chinese development banks have lent over $150 billion since 2000
- belt-and-road: Africa is a major focus of BRI infrastructure
Beijing offers development without governance conditions—attractive to many African leaders.
France¶
France retains significant influence in its former colonies:
- Military: Thousands of troops across the Sahel, bases in several countries
- Economic: French companies dominant in some sectors
- Political: Close ties with francophone elites
- Declining legitimacy: Anti-French sentiment rising, coups expelling French forces
Francafrique is not dead but is being challenged.
United States¶
American engagement is more limited than often assumed:
- Security focus: Counterterrorism, particularly in the Sahel and East Africa
- AGOA: Trade preferences for qualifying countries
- Aid: Significant development assistance, particularly for health
- Strategic competition: Concern about Chinese and Russian influence
Washington often treats Africa as secondary to other priorities.
Russia¶
Russia has expanded presence, particularly through private military contractors:
- Wagner Group: Operations in Mali, Central African Republic, Sudan, and elsewhere
- Arms sales: Traditional supplier to several African militaries
- Political support: Backing leaders who break with the West
- Disinformation: Active in shaping African narratives about Western powers
Russia offers an alternative to French and American partnerships.
Regional Powers¶
Several African states exercise regional influence:
- South Africa: Continental leader, though diminished by domestic challenges
- Nigeria: West African giant, significant oil producer, regional power
- Kenya: East African hub, relatively stable democracy
- Ethiopia: Large population, historical significance, now emerging from civil war
- Rwanda: Small but influential, controversial leader
Multilateral Institutions¶
Regional organizations play significant roles:
- African Union: Continental body, ambitious mandate, limited capacity
- ECOWAS: West African economic community, significant security role
- SADC: Southern African Development Community
- EAC: East African Community, pursuing deeper integration
These institutions mediate between external powers and African interests.
Current Dynamics¶
Sahel Crisis¶
The Sahel faces compounding crises:
- Jihadist insurgency: Groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIS control significant territory
- Climate stress: Drought and desertification worsen resource competition
- Governance failure: States unable to provide security or services
- French withdrawal: Coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger expelled French forces
- Russian presence: Wagner contractors replacing French troops
The Sahel exemplifies state failure and great power competition.
Horn of Africa Tensions¶
The Horn remains volatile:
- Ethiopian civil war: Tigray conflict killed hundreds of thousands, though truce holds
- Somalia: Al-Shabaab continues operations despite decades of intervention
- Eritrea: Isolated authoritarian state, involved in Ethiopian conflict
- Djibouti: Tiny state hosting US, Chinese, and French bases—the only location where US and Chinese forces are so close
- Sudan: Civil war erupted in 2023, creating humanitarian catastrophe
The Horn’s position controlling Red Sea approaches ensures continued international attention.
Great Lakes Instability¶
Central Africa’s conflicts persist:
- DRC: Ongoing conflict in the east, multiple armed groups, humanitarian crisis
- Mineral curse: Cobalt and other minerals fund armed groups
- Rwanda: Accused of supporting M23 rebels in Congo
- Regional dynamics: Complex web of alliances and enmities
The Congo holds resources essential to the global economy but cannot control its own territory.
Democratic Backsliding¶
African democracy faces challenges:
- Coups returning: Mali (2020, 2021), Guinea (2021), Burkina Faso (2022), Niger (2023), Gabon (2023)
- Electoral manipulation: Incumbents manipulating elections to remain in power
- Constitutional changes: Term limit removal and other power grabs
- Youth frustration: Demographic bulge meets limited opportunity
The democratic optimism of the 2000s has faded.
Economic Transformation¶
Despite challenges, economic change continues:
- Growth: Several economies expanding rapidly
- Urbanization: Cities growing faster than infrastructure
- Digital leapfrogging: Mobile money and tech adoption skipping traditional stages
- AfCFTA: Continental free trade agreement creating the world’s largest free trade area by member states
Africa’s economic potential remains enormous, if governance improves.
Strategic Significance¶
Critical Minerals¶
Africa holds minerals essential for the energy transition:
- Cobalt: DRC produces 70%+ of global supply; essential for batteries
- Copper: Zambia and DRC are major producers
- Lithium: Significant deposits across the continent
- Manganese: South Africa dominates production
- Platinum group metals: South Africa holds the vast majority of reserves
Control of these minerals is a strategic imperative.
Energy Resources¶
Traditional energy remains important:
- Oil: Nigeria, Angola, and others remain significant producers
- Natural gas: Mozambique’s discoveries could transform global markets
- Renewable potential: Africa has exceptional solar and wind resources
Africa could supply both fossil fuels during transition and clean energy after.
Demographic Dividend—or Disaster¶
Africa’s population trajectory matters globally:
- Growth: Population will double by mid-century
- Youth: Median age in many countries under 20
- Labor force: Could drive economic growth—or migration pressure
- Urbanization: Cities expanding rapidly, often without planning
Whether this becomes dividend or disaster depends on governance and investment.
Strategic Position¶
Africa’s geographic position carries weight:
- Maritime routes: Coasts face major trade lanes
- Basing opportunities: Djibouti demonstrates value of African bases
- Proximity to Middle East: Horn of Africa controls Red Sea approaches
- Atlantic access: West African coast faces the Americas
Great powers increasingly value African strategic real estate.
Future Outlook¶
China-West Competition¶
Great power competition will intensify:
- Infrastructure vs. governance: China offers projects without conditions; West emphasizes reform
- Alternative models: African leaders can play powers against each other
- Resource access: Competition for minerals will sharpen
- Military presence: Could expand if competition intensifies
Africa becomes a primary arena for US-China competition.
French Retreat¶
France’s position is weakening:
- Military withdrawal: Forced from Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger
- Popular rejection: Anti-French sentiment widespread
- Adaptation required: New model of engagement needed
- Opportunity for others: Russia and others filling vacuum
The end of Francafrique may be approaching.
Governance Trajectories¶
African governance could evolve in different directions:
- Democratic consolidation: Kenya, Senegal, Ghana show it’s possible
- Authoritarian persistence: Many regimes resist reform
- State failure: More countries could follow Somalia’s path
- New models: Could African states develop distinctive governance forms?
The governance question will determine whether Africa rises or stagnates.
Climate Impact¶
Climate change threatens the region:
- Sahel expansion: Desertification pushing populations south
- Extreme weather: Floods, droughts increasing
- Agricultural disruption: Threatening food security
- Migration pressure: Climate refugees within Africa and toward Europe
Africa will bear severe climate impacts despite minimal responsibility for emissions.
Integration Possibilities¶
Regional integration could accelerate:
- AfCFTA: Continental free trade area beginning to function
- Infrastructure links: Connecting markets across borders
- Common approaches: African positions on global issues gaining coherence
- Agency assertion: African states demanding voice in global governance
Whether integration delivers on its promise remains to be seen.
Conclusion¶
Sub-Saharan Africa is no longer the forgotten continent of Western strategic calculations. china has made it a priority, investing hundreds of billions in infrastructure and resource extraction. france is losing its grip on the francophone sphere it long dominated. Russia offers an alternative to Western partnerships. And African states themselves are asserting greater agency, playing external powers against each other and demanding voice in global governance.
The region’s strategic importance will only grow. The minerals essential for the energy transition are concentrated here. The population is growing faster than anywhere else, creating either a demographic dividend or a migration crisis depending on governance choices. Climate change will hit the continent hard, with global consequences. And the ideological competition between democratic and authoritarian governance models is playing out across African states.
For geopolitical analysis, Africa demonstrates how regions long considered peripheral can become central. The Cold War’s end left Africa neglected; great power competition is returning attention. But this attention brings risks as well as opportunities. External powers seeking resources and influence may not serve African interests. And Africa’s own internal dynamics—ethnic conflicts, governance failures, democratic aspirations—will shape outcomes as much as any external intervention.
The continent’s future is genuinely uncertain. It could become the growth engine of the mid-21st century or the source of destabilizing migration and conflict. Understanding Africa’s geopolitics is essential for anyone seeking to comprehend the emerging global order.
Sources & Further Reading¶
- Alden, Chris. China in Africa. Zed Books, 2007.
- Autesserre, Severine. The Frontlines of Peace: An Insider’s Guide to Changing the World. Oxford University Press, 2021.
- French, Howard. China’s Second Continent: How a Million Migrants Are Building a New Empire in Africa. Knopf, 2014.
- International Crisis Group. Reports on African conflicts and political dynamics.
- Brookings Institution. Africa in Focus program publications.