For two centuries, the United States has considered Latin America its sphere of influence—the “backyard” where no outside power would be permitted to establish a significant presence. The Monroe Doctrine, declared in 1823, asserted this claim to hemispheric dominance. For much of the 20th century, Washington backed it with economic leverage, covert intervention, and military force. Today, that dominance faces its most serious challenge since the Cold War, as China expands its economic footprint, left-wing governments return to power, and the region’s strategic resources attract global competition.
Geographic Context¶
The Vast Southern Landmass¶
Latin America encompasses an enormous territory stretching from Mexico’s northern border to Patagonia’s southern tip:
- Total area: Approximately 20 million square kilometers
- Population: Over 650 million people
- Countries: 33 sovereign nations plus dependencies
- Geographic diversity: Tropical rainforests, high mountain ranges, fertile plains, coastal deserts
The region’s sheer size creates governance challenges and allows for significant internal variation in political and economic development.
Strategic Geography¶
Several geographic features carry strategic significance:
- Panama Canal: The critical chokepoint linking Atlantic and Pacific oceans
- Caribbean Basin: Controls approaches to the US Gulf Coast and the canal
- Amazon Basin: The world’s largest rainforest, increasingly important for climate
- Southern Cone: Agricultural powerhouse (Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay)
- Andean spine: Mineral-rich mountain chain running north-south
Resource Endowment¶
Latin America possesses extraordinary natural wealth:
- Oil and gas: Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves; Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, and others are significant producers
- Minerals: Chile dominates copper; lithium triangle (Chile, Argentina, Bolivia) holds over half of global reserves
- Agriculture: Brazil is an agricultural superpower; Argentina’s pampas are among the world’s most productive farmlands
- Freshwater: The Amazon system contains 20% of the world’s freshwater
These resources make the region strategically important regardless of its internal politics.
Historical Background¶
Colonial Legacy¶
Spanish and Portuguese colonization shaped lasting patterns:
- Extraction economy: Resources exported to metropoles, limited local development
- Social hierarchy: Racial stratification persisting into the present
- Weak institutions: States built to extract rather than develop
- Dependence: Economic structures oriented toward external markets
Independence in the early 19th century did not fundamentally alter these patterns.
US Hegemony¶
The United States established hemispheric dominance progressively:
- Monroe Doctrine (1823): Declared opposition to European intervention
- Roosevelt Corollary (1904): Asserted US right to intervene to maintain order
- Gunboat diplomacy: Repeated military interventions in Central America and Caribbean
- Cold War intensification: Covert operations, support for anti-communist dictators, economic pressure
From Guatemala (1954) to Chile (1973) to Nicaragua (1980s), US intervention shaped regional politics.
Commodity Cycles¶
Latin American development has followed commodity price cycles:
- Colonial era: Silver and gold
- 19th century: Agricultural exports (coffee, sugar, beef)
- 20th century: Oil, minerals, industrial agriculture
- 21st century: Lithium, soybeans, oil, copper
Dependence on commodity exports creates boom-bust volatility and vulnerability to external market forces.
Left-Wing Movements¶
Resistance to US-backed governments and economic inequality has produced recurring left-wing movements:
- Cuban Revolution (1959): Castro established the hemisphere’s first communist state
- Allende’s Chile (1970-73): Elected socialist government overthrown with US support
- Sandinistas (1979-90): Revolutionary government in Nicaragua
- Pink Tide (2000s): Wave of left-wing electoral victories across the region
The tension between left-wing populism and US-aligned conservatism remains the region’s defining political axis.
Major Powers and Actors¶
The United States¶
Washington’s interests in Latin America include:
- Security: Preventing hostile powers from establishing presence
- Migration: Managing flows from Central America and beyond
- Drug trade: Combating narcotics trafficking
- Trade: Significant economic ties ($800+ billion annually)
- Democracy promotion: Rhetorical commitment, inconsistent practice
US engagement has declined relative to the Cold War peak, creating space for other actors.
China¶
China has become Latin America’s second-largest trading partner:
- Trade: Over $450 billion annually, primarily commodities for manufactured goods
- Investment: Infrastructure, mining, energy, telecommunications
- Loans: Chinese development banks have provided over $140 billion since 2005
- Diplomatic: Competing with Taiwan for recognition; now only a handful of Latin American countries recognize Taipei
Beijing does not seek to replace US security dominance but is building economic leverage that constrains US influence.
Regional Powers¶
Several Latin American states exercise regional influence:
- Brazil: Continental giant with aspirations to global power status
- Mexico: Economic weight and geographic position make it crucial
- Argentina: Historical regional power, currently diminished by economic crisis
- Colombia: US ally, significant military capability
- Venezuela: Oil wealth once enabled regional leadership under Chavez
Non-State Actors¶
Criminal organizations wield significant power:
- Drug cartels: Mexican cartels control trafficking routes worth tens of billions annually
- Gangs: MS-13 and others destabilize Central American countries
- Illegal mining: Particularly in Amazon regions
- Corruption networks: Penetrating state institutions across the region
In some areas, non-state actors exercise more effective control than governments.
Current Dynamics¶
The New Pink Tide¶
Since 2018, left-wing governments have returned to power:
- Mexico (2018): AMLO’s election marked a leftward shift in the US’s largest neighbor
- Argentina (2019): Peronist return under Fernandez (though Milei’s 2023 victory swung right)
- Bolivia (2020): MAS returned after the contested 2019 coup
- Peru (2021): Castillo’s brief, chaotic presidency
- Chile (2022): Boric’s election continued the trend
- Colombia (2022): Petro became the first leftist president
- Brazil (2022): Lula’s return completed the regional shift
This new left is more diverse than the 2000s pink tide, but shares skepticism of US policy and openness to Chinese engagement.
Venezuelan Crisis¶
Venezuela exemplifies regional dysfunction:
- Economic collapse: GDP fell by 80% from 2014-2020; hyperinflation destroyed savings
- Political crisis: Disputed elections, authoritarian consolidation under Maduro
- Humanitarian catastrophe: Over 7 million refugees, one of the largest displacement crises globally
- Geopolitical dimension: Russian and Chinese support for Maduro against US sanctions and pressure
Venezuela demonstrates both the consequences of mismanaged petro-states and the limits of US coercive diplomacy.
Mexican Complexity¶
Mexico’s relationship with the United States defines regional dynamics:
- Economic integration: USMCA trade exceeds $750 billion annually
- Migration: Transit point for Central Americans; source of significant migration
- Drug trafficking: Cartels dominate trafficking routes; violence has killed over 400,000 since 2006
- Sovereignty concerns: Mexican governments balance cooperation with resistance to US pressure
The border remains the most consequential international boundary for US domestic politics.
Brazilian Trajectory¶
Brazil’s political turbulence shapes regional possibilities:
- Bolsonaro era (2019-2022): Far-right government aligned with Trump, skeptical of multilateralism
- Lula’s return (2023-): Renewed emphasis on regional integration and South-South cooperation
- Amazon politics: Global pressure to preserve rainforest clashes with development interests
- BRICS engagement: Brazil sees itself as emerging power, not US client
Whether Brazil fulfills its potential as regional leader remains the hemisphere’s most important question.
Central American Migration¶
The Northern Triangle (Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador) generates persistent crisis:
- Push factors: Violence, poverty, corruption, climate impacts
- Migration flows: Hundreds of thousands attempt US entry annually
- US response: Oscillates between deterrence and addressing root causes
- Mexican role: Transit country increasingly pressured to control flows
Migration has become the dominant issue in US-Latin American relations.
Strategic Significance¶
Critical Resources¶
Latin America’s resources are increasingly strategic:
- Lithium: Essential for electric vehicles and energy storage; the lithium triangle could determine the energy transition’s geopolitics
- Copper: Chile produces nearly 30% of global supply; essential for electrification
- Agricultural commodities: Brazil and Argentina are critical to global food security
- Oil: Venezuelan reserves could matter if sanctions lift; Brazil’s pre-salt deposits are significant
- Rare earths: Deposits exist but remain largely undeveloped
Great power competition for these resources will intensify.
Trade Routes¶
The region’s geographic position carries strategic weight:
- Panama Canal: 5% of global trade transits; a chokepoint China cannot easily bypass
- Pacific ports: China has invested heavily in Peru’s Chancay port and elsewhere
- Caribbean shipping: Critical for US Gulf Coast trade
- Atlantic approaches: Brazil’s coast faces Africa and Europe
Control of regional infrastructure affects global supply chains.
Security Implications¶
Regional instability affects US security:
- Drug flows: Cartels supply the US market, generating violence on both sides
- Migration pressure: Destabilizing Central America means pressure at US borders
- Hostile presence: Russia and China could establish more significant presence if invited
- Failed states: Haiti demonstrates the consequences of state collapse nearby
The US cannot be secure if its immediate neighbors are not.
Future Outlook¶
Declining US Hegemony¶
US dominance is eroding but not ending:
- Reduced attention: Washington focuses on Asia and domestic issues
- Limited tools: Military intervention is politically costly; economic leverage has limits
- Ideological retreat: Democracy promotion rings hollow after Trump era
- Persistence: Geographic proximity ensures continued US engagement
The US will remain the dominant power but will face more constraints and competition.
Chinese Expansion¶
China’s presence will continue growing:
- Infrastructure investment: Ports, railways, telecommunications
- Commodity ties: Structural demand for Latin American resources
- Financial leverage: Loans create dependency
- Soft power limits: China lacks cultural appeal and faces corruption scandals in projects
China seeks influence, not hegemony—but that influence constrains US options.
Regional Integration¶
Latin American unity remains elusive:
- Mercosur: Stagnant, constrained by Argentine-Brazilian tensions
- Pacific Alliance: More dynamic but limited in scope
- CELAC: Inclusive but toothless
- Ideological division: Left-right swings disrupt regional cooperation
Regionalism has repeatedly promised more than it delivered.
Climate and Resources¶
Environmental pressures will reshape regional politics:
- Amazon preservation: Global pressure meets local development interests
- Water stress: Andean glacier melt threatens agriculture and cities
- Extreme weather: Hurricanes, droughts, and floods increasing
- Resource nationalism: Lithium and other strategic minerals invite state control
Climate change makes Latin America’s choices globally consequential.
Political Volatility¶
Instability appears structural:
- Weak institutions: Democracies remain fragile across the region
- Inequality: Among the world’s highest, driving political extremism
- Corruption: Pervasive despite occasional anti-corruption waves
- Populism: Left and right varieties thrive in this environment
Expect continued swings between left and right, democracy and authoritarianism.
Conclusion¶
Latin America is no longer simply the American backyard. Chinese investment, left-wing resurgence, and the region’s own agency have created a more complex environment. The united-states still dominates militarily and retains enormous economic ties, but its ability to dictate outcomes has diminished. china is building an economic presence that translates into political influence, though it has no interest in displacing US security dominance.
The region’s strategic importance is rising. Lithium, copper, and other minerals essential to the energy transition are concentrated here. The Amazon’s preservation matters for global climate. Migration and drug trafficking directly affect US domestic politics. And the ideological competition between left populism and right-wing nationalism will determine whether Latin American democracy consolidates or erodes.
For geopolitical analysis, Latin America demonstrates how great power competition plays out in a region with its own internal dynamics. The US cannot simply impose its preferences. China cannot simply buy influence. And Latin American states, despite their weaknesses, retain meaningful agency. The hemisphere’s future will be shaped by the interaction of these forces—not by any single power’s dominance.
The Monroe Doctrine is not dead, but it is no longer sufficient. Understanding Latin America requires understanding it as a region with its own logic, its own conflicts, and its own aspirations—not merely as an extension of US interests.
Sources & Further Reading¶
- Brands, Hal. Latin America’s Cold War. Harvard University Press, 2010.
- Gallagher, Kevin P. The China Triangle: Latin America’s China Boom and the Fate of the Washington Consensus. Oxford University Press, 2016.
- Grandin, Greg. Empire’s Workshop: Latin America, the United States, and the Rise of the New Imperialism. Metropolitan Books, 2006.
- Inter-American Dialogue. Reports on China-Latin America relations and regional political trends.
- Council on Foreign Relations. Latin America Studies program publications.