Eastern Europe

Eastern Europe is where the post-Cold War order is being contested and, in significant respects, has already collapsed. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine marked the return of major interstate war to Europe and the definitive end of the assumption that the continent’s borders were settled. This region—stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, from the former inner-German border to Russia’s western frontier—has become the central theater of confrontation between Russia and the Western alliance.

Understanding Eastern Europe requires understanding it as contested space: a zone where empires have risen and fallen, where national borders have shifted repeatedly, and where geography imposes choices between East and West that countries cannot avoid.

Geographic Context¶

The Lands Between¶

Eastern Europe occupies the space between Western Europe and Russia:

No natural barriers: Unlike Western Europe (protected by the English Channel, Pyrenees, Alps), Eastern Europe offers few geographic defenses
The European Plain: Flat terrain stretching from France to the Urals; historically an invasion corridor in both directions
River lines: Vistula, Dnieper, Bug rivers provide some defensive potential
Baltic access: Coastal states control sea approaches to Russia

Geography makes Eastern Europe a buffer zone whether its inhabitants want this or not.

The Countries¶

The region encompasses diverse states:

Poland: 38 million people; largest regional power; historical trauma from both German and Russian aggression
Ukraine: 44 million pre-war; second-largest European country by area; now Europe’s primary conflict zone
Romania: 19 million; strategic position on Black Sea; energy resources
Czech Republic: 10 million; industrialized; EU and nato member
Hungary: 10 million; increasingly authoritarian; ambivalent about Western alignment
Baltic States: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania—small but strategically critical; NATO’s most exposed members
Belarus: Under Lukashenko; effectively Russian satellite; invasion staging ground
Moldova: Small, poor, partially occupied by Russian forces

Strategic Features¶

Several geographic features carry particular significance:

Suwalki Gap: 65-kilometer corridor between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad; only land link to Baltic states
Black Sea: Controls Russia’s warm-water access; Romania, Bulgaria, and Ukraine’s coasts
Carpathian Mountains: Provide some defensive terrain in Ukraine and Romania
Kaliningrad: Russian exclave on the Baltic, housing nuclear-capable missiles

Resource Considerations¶

Eastern Europe has strategic resources:

Ukraine: Major agricultural producer; iron and manganese deposits
Romania: Significant oil and gas; Black Sea discoveries
Poland: Coal resources; energy hub potential
Transit routes: Pipelines carrying Russian gas to Western Europe

Ukraine’s agricultural and industrial resources add to its strategic value.

Historical Background¶

Empires and Partitions¶

Eastern Europe has been repeatedly partitioned:

Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth: Once dominated the region; partitioned among Russia, Prussia, and Austria (1772-1795)
Habsburg and Ottoman retreat: Created new nations in the Balkans and Central Europe
World War I: Collapse of empires created new states; many with disputed borders
Nazi-Soviet Pact (1939): Partitioned Poland again; Soviets absorbed Baltic states

Historical memory of partition shapes contemporary politics.

Soviet Domination¶

World War II brought Soviet control:

Red Army liberation/occupation: Soviet forces expelled Nazis but stayed
Iron Curtain: Division of Europe into Soviet and Western spheres
Satellite states: Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria under Soviet control
Suppressed uprisings: Hungary (1956), Czechoslovakia (1968) showed limits of toleration

Four decades of Soviet rule left deep scars and created determination not to return.

1989 and After¶

The Soviet collapse transformed the region:

Peaceful revolutions: Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary transitioned relatively smoothly
German reunification: Absorbed East Germany into the West
Soviet dissolution: Created independent Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Baltic states
Western integration: Gradual EU and NATO expansion eastward

The post-1989 period seemed to promise permanent Western orientation.

NATO Expansion¶

The alliance expanded in waves:

1999: Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary joined
2004: Baltic states, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia joined
2008 Bucharest Summit: Promised eventual membership for Ukraine and Georgia (without timeline)
2017-present: Montenegro, North Macedonia joined; Finland, Sweden pending

Russia viewed this expansion as threatening; the West viewed it as stabilizing.

Russia’s Response¶

Moscow’s reaction evolved from complaint to confrontation:

Diplomatic protest: Consistent objection to NATO expansion
2008 Georgia War: Brief war following Georgia’s NATO aspirations
2014 Ukraine: Annexation of Crimea; support for Donbas separatists
2022 Ukraine: Full-scale invasion attempting to prevent Western integration

The 2022 invasion marked the definitive end of the post-Cold War order in Europe.

Major Powers and Actors¶

Russia¶

Russia’s strategic imperatives in Eastern Europe:

Buffer zone: Desire for space between NATO and Russian heartland
Near abroad: View of former Soviet space as legitimate sphere of influence
NATO opposition: Fundamental objection to alliance presence on borders
Slavic identity: Cultural and religious claims on Ukraine and Belarus
Security concerns: Whether genuine or pretextual, fear of NATO offensive capability

russia views Eastern Europe as essential to its security; the West views Russian claims as imperial.

United States¶

American interests in the region:

Alliance commitment: NATO’s Article 5 guarantee extends to Eastern European members
Democratic expansion: Ideological interest in consolidating democracy
Russia containment: Preventing Russian domination of Europe
Force posture: Rotating deployments, enhanced since 2014 and especially 2022
Ukraine support: Massive military aid without direct intervention

The US has become the indispensable power for Eastern European security.

European Union¶

The EU plays a distinct role:

Enlargement: Economic integration as complement to NATO security
Conditionality: Reform requirements for membership
Energy dependence: (Reduced) Russian gas imports complicate policy
Ukraine candidate status: Granted 2022; membership distant but committed
Internal divisions: Hungary’s resistance to unified approach

The EU offers economic and political integration; NATO offers security.

NATO¶

The alliance has transformed its Eastern focus:

Enhanced Forward Presence: Multinational battlegroups in Baltic states and Poland
Readiness improvements: Faster response capability
Deterrence posture: Shift from reassurance to defense planning
Nordic expansion: Finland joined; Sweden pending

NATO’s Eastern flank has become its primary focus.

Regional Powers¶

Certain Eastern European states play outsized roles:

Poland: De facto regional leader; largest military buildup in Europe; hosts significant US presence
Romania: Black Sea anchor; energy potential; stable ally
Baltic states: Most exposed members; vocal advocates for robust deterrence

Ukraine¶

Ukraine’s situation is unique:

Defending state: Fighting existential war against Russian invasion
Western alignment: Clear commitment despite not being NATO member
Military transformation: Now Europe’s most combat-experienced military
Reconstruction needs: Massive damage requiring long-term support

Ukraine’s survival and orientation will define the region’s future.

Current Dynamics¶

The Ukraine War¶

The war that defines the region:

Russian invasion (February 2022): Full-scale attack seeking quick victory
Ukrainian resistance: Kyiv held; Russian forces pushed back from north
Attritional warfare: Grinding conflict in east and south
Western support: Massive military aid keeping Ukraine in the fight
Nuclear dimension: Russian threats complicating Western response
Territorial situation: Russia occupies ~18% of Ukrainian territory

The war’s outcome will shape European security for decades.

Baltic Vulnerability¶

The Baltic states face particular risks:

Small size: Estonia (1.3M), Latvia (1.9M), Lithuania (2.8M)
Russian minorities: Significant Russian populations in Estonia and Latvia
Suwalki Gap: Land corridor could be cut
Kaliningrad proximity: Russian military concentration nearby
Hybrid threats: Cyberattacks, disinformation already experienced

Baltic security is the most demanding challenge for NATO deterrence.

Poland’s Transformation¶

Poland has become the region’s leader:

Military buildup: Largest defense spending increase in NATO; army expanding toward 300,000
US relationship: Close alignment; hosts major US rotational presence
Ukraine support: Primary transit point for Western aid
EU tensions: Rule of law disputes strain Brussels relations
Historical memory: Deep-seated fear of both Russia and German weakness

Poland is becoming Eastern Europe’s indispensable power.

Hungary’s Divergence¶

Hungary presents a different trajectory:

Orban’s rule: Increasingly authoritarian; “illiberal democracy”
Russia ties: Maintained closer relations despite invasion
NATO friction: Blocking Sweden’s accession; resisting Ukraine support
EU conflict: Fundamental values disputes; frozen funds
Strategic position: Landlocked; less exposed than Baltic states

Hungary demonstrates limits of alliance cohesion.

Moldova’s Precarity¶

Moldova exemplifies regional vulnerability:

Transnistria: Russian-occupied separatist territory since 1992
Economic weakness: Europe’s poorest country
Energy dependence: Previously reliant on Russian gas
EU candidacy: Granted alongside Ukraine; reform ongoing
Russian pressure: Fears of next target

Moldova’s fate depends heavily on Ukraine’s.

Belarus Integration¶

Belarus has become a Russian satellite:

2020 protests suppressed: Lukashenko survived with Russian support
Invasion staging ground: Russian forces attacked Ukraine from Belarus
Russian military presence: Essentially integrated into Russian system
Nuclear hosting: Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed
Economic dependency: Complete reliance on Russia

Belarus represents the endpoint of Russian integration.

Strategic Significance¶

NATO’s Eastern Flank¶

The region has become NATO’s priority:

Credibility test: Article 5 commitment must be credible to deter
Force requirements: Shift from reassurance tripwires to denial capability
Infrastructure investment: Pre-positioning, logistics, airfields
Integration challenges: Coordinating multinational forces

Eastern European security is now NATO’s defining mission.

Energy Geopolitics¶

Energy adds another dimension:

Russian gas weaponization: Supply cuts demonstrated dependence risks
European diversification: LNG imports, new pipelines reducing Russian share
Nuclear power: Several Eastern European states expanding nuclear
Transit revenues: Ukraine, Poland, Belarus historically important for Russian exports

Energy dependence has been a vulnerability; reducing it is a priority.

Democratic Consolidation¶

The region’s political development varies:

Success stories: Poland, Czech Republic, Baltic states consolidated democracies (though Poland faces some backsliding concerns)
Backsliding: Hungary’s democratic regression
Ukraine’s test: Whether war strengthens or undermines democratic institutions
Corruption challenges: Persistent in several countries

Democratic stability cannot be assumed.

Migration and Demographics¶

Population dynamics pose long-term challenges:

Emigration: Significant outflows to Western Europe
Aging: Among Europe’s oldest populations
Ukrainian refugees: Millions displaced, mostly to Poland
Labor shortages: Economic impacts from demographic decline

These trends affect economic potential and military capacity.

Future Outlook¶

War Outcomes¶

The Ukraine war could end in various ways:

Ukrainian victory: Restoration of territorial integrity; Russian defeat
Stalemate: Frozen conflict along some line
Russian gains: Forced settlement leaving Russia with conquests
Escalation: Nuclear use or NATO involvement

Each scenario has dramatically different implications for the region.

NATO Posture Evolution¶

Alliance presence will likely deepen:

Permanent presence: Shift from rotational to stationed forces
Forward defense: From tripwire to war-fighting capability
Nordic integration: Finland and Sweden strengthen Baltic security
Infrastructure investment: Long-term presence requires bases, pre-positioning

The transformation begun in 2022 will continue regardless of war outcome.

Russia’s Future¶

Russia’s trajectory affects all scenarios:

Regime continuity: Putin or successor maintaining current course
Regime change: New leadership potentially more or less aggressive
Capability degradation: War losses reducing Russian threat
Nuclear reliance: Increased dependence on nuclear deterrence

Russia will remain a challenge regardless of internal changes.

European Defense¶

European capabilities may expand:

Defense spending: Most countries increasing toward 2%+ of GDP
Industrial capacity: Ammunition production, procurement expanding
Strategic autonomy: Reduced but not eliminated US dependence
Nuclear dimension: French nuclear guarantee discussions

Whether Europe can sustain commitment long-term remains uncertain.

Regional Differentiation¶

Eastern European countries may diverge:

Front-line states: Poland, Baltics, Romania maintain high threat perception
Insulated states: Hungary, potentially others, may reduce commitment
EU integration: Further expansion possible but demanding
Economic development: War-related disruption vs. opportunity

The region’s diversity will produce varied responses.

Conclusion¶

Eastern Europe has returned to the center of global geopolitics. The region where the Cold War was won is now where a new confrontation between russia and the West plays out. The 2022 invasion of ukraine shattered assumptions about the post-Cold War order and made clear that European security cannot be taken for granted.

The region’s geographic position makes its fate consequential for all major powers. It is where nato’s credibility is tested, where european-union enlargement meets its limits and opportunities, and where Russian ambitions collide with Western values and interests. The outcome of this confrontation will shape global order for decades.

For geopolitical analysis, Eastern Europe demonstrates several enduring truths. Geography imposes constraints that politics cannot fully escape. Historical memory shapes present choices. And great power competition finds expression through regional dynamics that have their own logic and momentum. Understanding Eastern Europe requires understanding it as both an object of great power competition and a set of states with their own interests, histories, and agency.

The post-Cold War hope that Eastern Europe would be permanently integrated into a peaceful European order has been proven premature. Whether that hope can be recovered or must be abandoned for a more traditional balance-of-power approach is the fundamental question facing European security.

Sources & Further Reading¶

Applebaum, Anne. Iron Curtain: The Crushing of Eastern Europe, 1944-1956. Doubleday, 2012.
Kagan, Robert. The Return of History and the End of Dreams. Knopf, 2008.
Plokhy, Serhii. The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine. Basic Books, 2015.
RAND Corporation. Studies on NATO’s Eastern Flank defense.
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Europe program publications.