The Caucasus is one of the world’s most complex regions: a mountainous land bridge between Europe and Asia where the Russian, Turkish, and Persian spheres of influence overlap. Within this small territory, dozens of distinct ethnic groups have coexisted, competed, and periodically fought for centuries. The collapse of the Soviet Union left unresolved conflicts that have repeatedly erupted into war, while the region’s position as an energy transit corridor between Central Asia and Europe adds global stakes to local rivalries.
Understanding the Caucasus requires understanding it as a zone of convergence—where great powers meet, where civilizations intersect, and where geographic complexity has prevented any single power from establishing unchallenged dominance.
Geographic Context¶
The Mountain Barrier¶
The Caucasus Mountains define the region:
- Greater Caucasus: The main range running 1,200 kilometers from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea; Europe’s highest peaks
- Lesser Caucasus: Southern ranges extending into Armenia and Azerbaijan
- Passes and valleys: Limited routes through the mountains; strategic chokepoints
- Climatic barrier: Separating temperate north from subtropical south
The mountains have protected distinct cultures while creating isolated valleys where ethnic groups developed separately.
The Countries¶
The South Caucasus comprises three states:
- Georgia: 3.7 million people; Black Sea access; Western-oriented; partially occupied by Russia
- Armenia: 3 million people; landlocked; historically close to Russia; Christian enclave
- Azerbaijan: 10 million people; Caspian oil and gas wealth; Turkic and secular; increasingly assertive
The North Caucasus remains part of Russia, containing Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, and other republics.
Strategic Geography¶
Several features carry strategic significance:
- Black Sea coast: Georgia’s coastline and ports
- Caspian Sea: Azerbaijan’s offshore oil and gas fields
- Energy corridors: Pipelines running from Central Asia through the region to Europe
- Dariali Pass: Historical invasion route between Russia and the south
- Zangezur corridor: Potential link between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan exclave through Armenian territory
Energy Resources¶
The region’s hydrocarbons are globally significant:
- Azerbaijan: Major oil producer (Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli field); Shah Deniz gas field
- Transit routes: Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline; Southern Gas Corridor to Europe
- Bypass strategy: Routes designed to circumvent both Russia and Iran
- Caspian reserves: Shared with Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan across the sea
Energy makes the Caucasus matter beyond its size.
Historical Background¶
Ancient Crossroads¶
The region has been a crossroads for millennia:
- Silk Road: Trade routes passed through the Caucasus
- Persian, Roman, Byzantine empires: All competed for control
- Arab conquests: Brought Islam to much of the region
- Mongol invasions: Devastated and reconfigured populations
The layers of history contribute to contemporary complexity.
Russian Expansion¶
Russia conquered the region over centuries:
- Georgian incorporation (1801): The Christian kingdom sought protection from Persia and Turkey
- Caucasus wars (1817-1864): Brutal conquest of North Caucasus; mass expulsions of Circassians
- Treaty of Turkmenchay (1828): Persia ceded present-day Armenia and Azerbaijan
- Imperial administration: Russian rule brought modernization and suppression
Russian conquest created the basic territorial framework still in place.
Soviet Era¶
The Soviet period created enduring structures and problems:
- Boundary drawing: Stalin deliberately drew borders to divide ethnic groups, creating potential conflicts
- Nagorno-Karabakh: Armenian-majority enclave placed within Azerbaijan SSR
- Abkhazia and South Ossetia: Autonomous regions within Georgian SSR
- Deportations: Chechens, Ingush, and others deported in WWII
- Economic development: Baku as industrial center; heavy industry and agriculture
Soviet boundaries became international borders when the USSR collapsed.
Post-Soviet Conflicts¶
The Soviet collapse triggered immediate conflicts:
- Nagorno-Karabakh War I (1988-1994): Armenia seized the enclave and surrounding territories
- Abkhazia War (1992-93): Russian-backed separatists expelled Georgian population
- South Ossetia conflict (1991-92): Separatist territory established
- Chechen Wars (1994-96, 1999-2009): Russia’s devastating campaigns to prevent secession
- August 2008 War: Russia defeated Georgia, recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent
These conflicts created “frozen conflicts” that periodically thaw violently.
Major Powers and Actors¶
Russia¶
Russia remains the dominant regional power:
- Military presence: Bases in Armenia, occupied territories in Georgia, dominant in North Caucasus
- CSTO: Armenia was a member of Russian-led military alliance
- Economic leverage: Energy, trade, remittances from migrant workers
- Peacekeepers: 2,000 troops deployed in Nagorno-Karabakh after 2020 war
- Weakening grip: Ukraine war has constrained Russian attention and capability
russia considers the Caucasus part of its sphere of influence but faces challenges maintaining control.
Turkey¶
Turkey has expanded its regional role:
- Azerbaijan ties: “One nation, two states” relationship; linguistic and cultural affinity
- Military support: Turkish drones decisive in 2020 war; training and equipment
- Georgia relations: Trade, transit, relatively positive ties
- Armenia hostility: Border closed; genocide recognition dispute; no relations
- Neo-Ottoman ambitions: Erdogan sees Turkey as regional leader
turkey has become Azerbaijan’s primary external backer.
Iran¶
Iran’s interests are complex:
- Azerbaijan concern: Large Azeri minority in northern Iran; fear of pan-Turkic sentiment
- Armenia ties: Paradoxically closer to Christian Armenia than Shia Azerbaijan
- Transit role: Alternative route for landlocked Armenia
- Nuclear program: Regional implications of any conflict
- Limited influence: Less capable of power projection than Turkey
iran seeks to prevent hostile powers from dominating its northern border.
The United States and EU¶
Western involvement has been limited but significant:
- Georgia support: Political and military backing for Western-oriented government
- Energy interest: Invested in Caspian pipelines bypassing Russia and Iran
- Democratization: Rhetorical support, some assistance
- Conflict resolution: Minsk Group co-chair (with Russia and France) for Karabakh; now defunct
- Sanctions: Targeting Azerbaijan over human rights concerns
Western attention has fluctuated with other priorities.
Regional States¶
The three South Caucasus states pursue distinct strategies:
- Georgia: Western orientation; seeking NATO and EU membership; Russian-occupied territories
- Armenia: Historical Russian reliance now in question after 2020 defeat; pivot uncertain
- Azerbaijan: Balanced foreign policy; using energy leverage; increasingly dominant regionally
Each state navigates between great powers with varying success.
Current Dynamics¶
Azerbaijan’s Military Victory¶
The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War transformed the region:
- 44-day war: Azerbaijan recaptured surrounding territories and parts of Karabakh
- Armenian defeat: Decades of military advantage reversed
- Turkish support: Drones, advisors, Syrian mercenaries supported Azerbaijan
- Russian peacekeepers: Deployed but did not prevent Azerbaijani advances
- September 2023: Azerbaijan seized remaining Armenian-controlled Karabakh; ethnic Armenian population fled
Azerbaijan has achieved its war aims; the question is whether it seeks more.
Armenia’s Crisis¶
Armenia faces an existential challenge:
- Military defeat: Lost Karabakh and strategic depth
- Russian disappointment: CSTO did not defend Armenia; Russia distracted by Ukraine
- Diplomatic isolation: Landlocked, hostile neighbors, weakened ally
- Western pivot?: Government seeking closer ties with EU and US
- Internal instability: 2020 defeat triggered political crisis
Armenia must find new security arrangements or face continued vulnerability.
Georgia’s Precarious Position¶
Georgia navigates a dangerous environment:
- Western aspiration: Applied for EU membership; NATO aspiration remains
- Russian occupation: 20% of territory under Russian control
- Domestic politics: “Georgian Dream” government accused of backsliding on reform
- Transit importance: Energy and trade corridor to Europe
- Vulnerability: Russian military could reach Tbilisi quickly
Georgia’s Western path is uncertain amid domestic and external pressures.
Energy Corridor Politics¶
Pipeline routes carry strategic weight:
- Southern Gas Corridor: TAP/TANAP pipelines bringing Azerbaijani gas to Europe
- Diversification value: Alternative to Russian supply, especially post-2022
- Middle Corridor: Trans-Caspian route gaining interest for Central Asian exports
- Investment: Billions in infrastructure; long-term commitments
- Vulnerability: Pipelines pass through contested territories
Energy transit gives the region importance beyond its local conflicts.
North Caucasus Under Putin¶
Russia’s internal Caucasus faces distinct dynamics:
- Chechnya: Kadyrov’s brutal personal rule; forces deployed to Ukraine
- Dagestan: Multiple ethnicities; extremism concerns; poverty
- Stability through repression: Violence suppressed but grievances persist
- Ukraine war impact: Disproportionate casualties from Caucasus regions
- Emigration: Educated youth leaving
The North Caucasus remains a potential source of Russian instability.
Turkey-Russia Relationship¶
The two powers maintain complex ties:
- Competitive cooperation: Rivals in Syria, Libya, Caucasus; partners in trade, energy
- Azerbaijan alignment: Both benefit from Armenia’s weakness, but compete for influence
- S-400 purchase: Turkish acquisition of Russian air defense complicated NATO ties
- Ukraine war: Turkey maintains relations with both sides; mediator role
- Syrian tensions: Direct confrontation avoided but interests clash
The Turkey-Russia relationship shapes regional dynamics.
Strategic Significance¶
Energy Security¶
The region matters for global energy:
- European diversification: Caspian gas reduces Russian dependence
- Pipeline infrastructure: Billions invested in routes through Georgia and Turkey
- Caspian access: Azerbaijan controls western shore; Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan on east
- Future potential: Middle Corridor could expand significantly
The energy transition may eventually reduce this importance, but not soon.
Connectivity Corridors¶
Transit routes matter beyond energy:
- Middle Corridor: Rail and road connecting China to Europe through Central Asia and Caucasus
- North-South Corridor: Iran-Russia route through Azerbaijan
- BRI connection: Chinese interest in alternative routes
- Sanctions bypass: Routes avoiding Russian or Iranian territory
Geographic position makes the region a potential chokepoint.
Great Power Competition¶
The Caucasus is a theater of broader rivalries:
- Russia vs. West: Georgia represents a front in this competition
- Turkey vs. Russia: Competing for influence in former Soviet space
- Iran vs. Turkey: Historical rivals with current tensions
- China interest: BRI routes, energy access, limited direct involvement
Small states must navigate between competing powers.
Frozen Conflicts¶
Unresolved conflicts remain dangerous:
- South Ossetia: Russian-occupied Georgian territory; no resolution in sight
- Abkhazia: Similar situation; ethnic Georgian IDPs cannot return
- Karabakh aftermath: Displaced Armenians; potential for renewed conflict
- Javakheti: Armenian-majority region in Georgia; potential future flashpoint
These conflicts could reignite given the right conditions.
Future Outlook¶
Post-Karabakh Order¶
The new regional balance is still forming:
- Azerbaijani dominance: Military victory creates new confidence
- Zangezur corridor: Potential route through Armenian territory; Armenia resists
- Peace treaty: Negotiations ongoing; fundamental issues unresolved
- Armenian realignment: Western pivot attempted but uncertain
The 2020-2023 wars reshaped regional dynamics; further changes possible.
Russian Trajectory¶
Russia’s regional position depends on broader factors:
- Ukraine outcome: Victory or defeat affects Caucasus leverage
- Attention deficit: War elsewhere limits Caucasus focus
- Armenian relations: Historic ally questioning relationship
- Georgian pressure: Could Moscow escalate against Tbilisi?
- Internal stability: North Caucasus remains potential vulnerability
Russian weakness opens space for Turkey but also creates risks.
Turkish Expansion¶
Turkey’s role is likely to grow:
- Azerbaijan integration: Closer military and economic ties
- Georgia engagement: Positive relations; potential deepening
- Regional ambitions: Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman vision includes Caucasus
- Limits: Turkish economic problems constrain expansion
Turkey is the rising power in the region.
Western Options¶
The West faces difficult choices:
- Georgia commitment: How firmly to support Western aspirations?
- Armenia outreach: Opportunity to draw traditional Russian ally westward
- Azerbaijan relations: Balance energy interest against human rights
- Conflict resolution: Minsk Group defunct; what replaces it?
Western engagement has been inconsistent; the region is not a priority.
Climate and Environment¶
Environmental pressures add complications:
- Water stress: Shared rivers create tensions
- Glacier melt: Long-term threat to water supplies
- Caspian Sea levels: Fluctuating with climate impacts
- Desertification: Affecting agricultural areas
Climate change will add pressure to existing conflicts.
Conclusion¶
The Caucasus is where russia, turkey, and iran meet and compete. This small, mountainous region contains frozen conflicts that periodically erupt into war, energy corridors vital for European security, and ethnic complexity that defies simple solutions. The 2020-2023 Nagorno-Karabakh wars demonstrated that these frozen conflicts can thaw violently and that regional balances can shift rapidly.
Russia’s traditional dominance is weakening but not ended. The Ukraine war has constrained Russian attention and capability, creating openings for Turkey and potentially the West. Armenia’s defeat has shaken the regional order, while Azerbaijan’s victory has made it the dominant local power. Georgia continues to seek Western integration while living under Russian military threat.
For geopolitical analysis, the Caucasus demonstrates several important dynamics. Great power competition plays out through local conflicts, with ethnic and religious divisions providing the material for proxy competition. Energy resources and transit routes give small states leverage but also make them targets. And the difficulty of conflict resolution in multi-ethnic borderlands shows how easily historical grievances can be mobilized for contemporary purposes.
The region’s future depends heavily on developments beyond its borders: the outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Turkey’s trajectory under or after Erdogan, and the West’s willingness to engage consistently. But local dynamics will also matter—whether Armenia finds a sustainable security arrangement, whether Azerbaijan’s ambitions are satisfied, and whether Georgia can maintain its Western orientation. The Caucasus will remain a crucible of complexity and competition.
Sources & Further Reading¶
- De Waal, Thomas. The Caucasus: An Introduction. Oxford University Press, 2018.
- German, Tracey. Regional Cooperation in the South Caucasus: Good Neighbours or Distant Relatives? Routledge, 2016.
- King, Charles. The Ghost of Freedom: A History of the Caucasus. Oxford University Press, 2008.
- International Crisis Group. Reports on Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and Georgian territories.
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Caucasus program publications.